APR: your source for nuclear news and analysis since April 16, 2010

Monday, March 14, 2011


I note as a matter of course that an earlier admission by TEPCO that the hydrogen gas explosion at Daiichi No. 3 plant had damaged a wall at No. 2 plant, coupled with a very recent ticker indicating TEPCO believes it's possible that the primary coolant system of Daiichi No. 2 is now compromised means that the potential for the primary to be essentially open to atmosphere exists.

This is by NO means certain, but assemblage of the statements alone by TEPCO points up this chance.

The core melt scenario is supported very well now... considering the 3200 microsievert readings on a fairly sustained basis earlier and the later explosion sound, primary suppression pool pressure drop and spike in rad levels to 8200 microsieverts. My previous assumption of core melt and the drop of failed elements into water in the core volume, which would cause a steam explosion and possibly a metal-water reaction with Zirconium, would match up with all these indications.

If we couple this assumption on my part with the admissions from TEPCO detailed in the opening paragraph of this post the result if all is true is a Class 9 Reactor Accident.

THIS IS NOT YET CERTAIN .. but it is simply the worst case scenario.


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